The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry, and Banking (JSCCIB) has assessed Thailand’s economic outlook for the year 2024 and projected that the GDP is trending upwards at 2.8-3.3%. Exports are also expected to show an upward trend at 2-3%, while inflation is decreasing at a rate of 0.7-1.2%. Despite the overall growth of the Thai economy, there is a declining potential, and the recovery is exhibiting a K-shaped pattern. Therefore, there is a call for government intervention to stimulate the economy. This may involve establishing a fund to support credit, particularly for SMEs, and reducing interest rates to align with the decreasing trend, especially in the second quarter of this year.
The Thai economy is seen as recovering, albeit with vulnerabilities. Despite the tourism sector contributing to economic support, the manufacturing sector continues to contract, hindering a widespread recovery. The persistently negative inflation rate is a sign of economic fragility in the country and warrants close monitoring. Additionally, Thailand’s structural issues have caused a sluggish trend in its economy, with several Thai products not meeting market demand.
While Thai exports are expanding in line with the global economic trend in 2024, expected to grow by 3% (slightly better than previous estimates, according to IMF and OECD projections), challenges persist. The strong economy of the United States, despite high-interest rates, and anticipated stimulus measures in the Chinese economy, align with the improved Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in January. However, Thailand’s exports face increased risks due to geopolitical issues. Export of goods is expected to expand by approximately 2-3% this year, in line with the recovery of emerging markets and the electronics trade cycle.
Reference
- The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB)
- MGR Online
Please Noted: This blog post is based on publicly available information and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified professional for tailored advice regarding your specific situation.